Aviation industry in concern: forecasts for 2025 significantly reduced!

Aviation industry in concern: forecasts for 2025 significantly reduced!

The aviation industry is facing a challenging year 2025. The International Aviation Association (IATA) has significantly reduced its forecasts for air traffic and the expected profits. According to entrepreneur-heute.de , the number of air travel is expected to be below 5 billion, specifically at 4.99 billion, which is an increase of 4 percent, but under the original estimate of 5.22 billion flights. This reflects the increasing uncertainties in the global markets.

The decline in the expected profits of the airlines is particularly striking. IATA predicts that the airlines have to expect $ 36 billion (approx. 31.5 billion euros) in 2025, which is less than previously expected. Sales from the commercial aviation should be around $ 979 billion, which is a modest increase in 1.3 percent compared to the previous year, but under the forecast markets of one trillion dollar.

market uncertainties and challenges

IATA General Director Willie Walsh was concerned about the "considerable uncertainties" in the global markets in the first half of the year. The profit margin of the industry is expected to be lower, and risks that burden the aviation industry are diverse. These include geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukraine war and trade tensions that could affect both the demand for travel and air freight.

With regard to the air freight, IATA expects a reduction in the expected tonnage from 72.5 million to 69 million tons for 2025. Here, too, a decline in the air freight income is forecast by $ 4.7 percent to $ 142 billion. These negative tendencies are not only shown in changed traffic figures, but also in increasing pressure in the industry. Delays in the delivery of new aircraft increase the costs and inhibit the growth of the offer.

cost development and market adjustments

The airline industry's fuel costs are estimated at $ 236 billion, which is $ 25 billion less than in the previous year. The sunken oil prices therefore offer a certain relief for operating costs. The Brent oil price is currently less than $ 65 per barrel, which can be considered positive for the profitability of the airlines.

WALSH demanded that the aviation sector are excluded from increased tariffs in order not to worsen the market conditions. In particular, US customs policy under President Trump increases uncertainties among consumers and could extend the duration of the difficult market situation.