Aviation industry worried: forecasts for 2025 significantly lowered!

Aviation industry worried: forecasts for 2025 significantly lowered!

The aviation industry is facing a challenging 2025. The International Aviation Association (Iata) has significantly lowered its forecasts for air traffic and expected profits. Loud entrepreneurship-heute.de The number of air trips is expected to be below 5 billion, specifically estimated at 4.99 billion, an increase of 4 percent, but below the original estimate of 5.22 billion flights. This reflects the increasing uncertainties in global markets.

The decline in airlines' expected profits is particularly noticeable. Iata forecasts that airlines will see profits of $36 billion in 2025, which is $600 million less than previously expected. Commercial aviation revenue is expected to be about $979 billion, up a modest 1.3 percent from last year, but below the forecast market of $1 trillion.

Market uncertainties and challenges

Iata chief executive Willie Walsh expressed concern about the “significant uncertainties” in global markets in the first half of the year. The industry's profit margin is expected to be lower and risks weighing on the aviation industry are diverse. These include geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukraine war and trade tensions, which could affect both travel and air freight demand.

With regard to air freight, Iata expects a reduction in expected tonnage from 72.5 million to 69 million tonnes for 2025. Here too, air freight revenue is forecast to decline by 4.7 percent to $142 billion. These negative tendencies are reflected not only in changing traffic figures, but also in increasing pressure on the industry. Delays in the delivery of new aircraft increase costs and inhibit supply growth.

Cost development and market adjustments

The airline industry's fuel costs are estimated at $236 billion, down $25 billion from last year. The lower oil prices therefore offer some relief in terms of operating costs. Currently, Brent oil prices are below $65 per barrel, which can be seen as positive for airline profitability.

Walsh called for the aviation sector to be exempt from increased tariffs to avoid further deteriorating market conditions. In particular, US tariff policy under President Trump is increasing uncertainty among consumers and could prolong the duration of the difficult market situation.

All in all, the aviation industry is facing an uncertain year in which, despite billions in profits, there are significant challenges. The ability to adapt and navigate these will be crucial to future economic success. Market factors suggest that the industry must prepare for uncertain times while attempting to meet the challenges of the global economy.