Be careful, Naples! Signs of a dangerous volcanic eruption are increasing

Be careful, Naples! Signs of a dangerous volcanic eruption are increasing

In the Phlegraean Fields west of Naples, Italy, volcanologists are registering a worrying increase in volcanic activity. The supervolcano, which lies in a region with over 500,000 inhabitants, is under particularly intensive observation. This development is underpinned by both the geopolitical events of recent years and recent scientific studies.

The region received particular attention after an earthquake on May 13, 2024 with a magnitude of 4.4, the epicenter of which was in the Phlegraean Fields. The town of Pozzuoli was particularly affected, where cracks were found in some buildings. Fortunately, there were no reports of injuries. Such earthquakes are not new; Similar strong tremors were registered on Whit Monday 2024 and in mid-March 2025. The alarming activity has left the region's alert level stable at yellow for 11 years, and authorities are taking new measures to improve the seismic safety of buildings.

Scientific findings and dangers

A recent study conducted by researchers at University College London and Italy's Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia points to an increased likelihood of a volcanic eruption. This study has shown that the rock cover above the magma chamber is weakened more than previously thought. The pressure among the Campi Flegrei has been increasing since 2005; The ground in Pozzuoli has risen over a meter since the fall of 2005 and continues to bulge at a rate of about 1.5 cm per month. Historic eruptions in the region are not uncommon, the last occurring in 1538 and leading to the formation of Monte Nuovo.

A central topic of discussion is the different interpretations of these data. Giuseppe De Natale, research director at INGV, expressed critical views on the study and argues that the rock above the magma chamber may be more resilient than suggested in the study's conclusions. Still, the overall trends — from an increase in earthquake activity to ground uplift — are concerning.

Evacuation plans and security measures

Due to the potential threat of an eruption, authorities are working on plans for possible evacuations. In an emergency, people living in the red zone would have to be evacuated within 72 hours. There are also existing emergency instructions: instructions from the authorities should be followed and restricted areas should be strictly avoided. The travel warning from the Foreign Office is currently missing and air traffic is normal, but it is recommended to follow the current situation via the Italian Civil Protection website.

Developments in the Phlegraean Fields remain tense and experts advise caution. A major eruption could have not only local but also global consequences, as shown by a historic eruption 39,000 years ago that affected the climate worldwide. Given the increasing risks, it is essential to continue to monitor the situation closely and respond appropriately.