Swiss tourism on the rise: higher overnight stays despite uncertainties!

Swiss tourism on the rise: higher overnight stays despite uncertainties!

Swiss tourism is showing positive growth trends in the short term and could gain further momentum in the coming years. The forecast for summer 2024 shows an increase in overnight stays of 2% to a total of 24.9 million overnight stays. This increase is fueled by major international events such as the Women's European Football Championship and the Federal Gymnastics Festival in Lausanne. Furthermore, high employment and the recovery in real wages are supporting domestic demand, benefiting the tourism sector.

A moderate increase in overnight stays by Swiss guests of 1.4% is forecast for summer 2025, which corresponds to 157,000 additional overnight stays. Demand from the European markets is also expected to increase slightly, specifically by 0.8% and thus by 54,000 overnight stays. What is particularly pleasing is the fact that demand from the USA remains stable, with growth of 4.2% and 279,000 overnight stays. But despite these positive prospects, there are also long-term uncertainties that could affect Swiss tourism from the winter season onwards.

Long-term uncertainties and challenges

A key source of uncertainty is the US trade policy agenda, which could potentially have a negative impact on the tourism sector. German demand, on the other hand, could support Swiss tourism, as German tourists represent the largest customer group in Swiss tourism.

However, falling demand from the US could be comparable to a decline during the 2008 financial crisis, making the situation critical. In connection with the uncertain global economic situation, there are also fears that the issuing of visas for Chinese tourists could influence demand. It also remains unclear how group travel from China will develop, which is also the focus of the tourism industry.

Looking back at the 2008 financial crisis

The uncertainties in the current environment inevitably lead to a look back at the financial crisis that began exactly 17 years ago. The collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank on September 15, 2008 resulted in a global financial and economic crisis that did not leave Switzerland unaffected. The Swiss banking sector was severely affected, particularly UBS and Credit Suisse, which suffered significantly from the subprime crisis. But the Swiss economy was able to emerge from the crisis relatively unscathed compared to other countries.

The financial crisis led to a collapse of the dollar and a euro crisis, which resulted in the appreciation of the Swiss franc while export prices rose immeasurably. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) responded in 2011 with a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro, which it abandoned in 2015. During this time, SNB interventions stabilized the profit margins of Swiss export companies.

Overall, Switzerland was able to overcome the crisis without accumulating debt, which was helped by solid economic sectors and low government spending. Over the past decade, debt levels have been reduced and government coffers have remained in good condition despite serious challenges.

The lessons from the financial crisis should give Switzerland a valuable perspective on current and future developments in the tourism sector, which are constantly caught between opportunities and challenges.

In summary, the fundamentals of Swiss tourism are strong, but the future remains dependent on various external influences. Muula and Swissinfo show that the sector could continue to hold its ground despite current uncertainties, provided the necessary conditions are met.