TUI: Summer bookings weaken - investors look skeptical of numbers

TUI: Summer bookings weaken - investors look skeptical of numbers

TUI AG, Deutschland - On May 14, 2025, TUI AG published its figures for the second business quarter and showed positive developments, but they were recorded by the analysts with mixed feelings. The customary loss shrank to 188 million euros, which was 20 million euros better than the consensus expected. Sales rose by 11 percent to 7.3 billion euros, supported by higher prices in the cruise and hotel division. CEO Sebastian Ebel emphasized that Tui was "clear on course" to increase the result in the year as a whole. This reported Finanztrends.de .

Nevertheless, the TUI share got into the minus in the afternoon, as the analysts focused on the booking pace for the summer. By the end of April, only 60 percent of capacities were sold for the months of July and August - three points less than in the previous year. Management attributes the late bookings to the late Easter date as well as uncertainties regarding flight taxes and potential strikes. This shows an increasing sensitivity to the customer: families are waiting for last-minute offers, while wealthier customers book individual round trips.

financial key figures in detail

TUI also registered an improved adjusted EBIT of -206.8 million euros in the second quarter of 2025, which represents a decline compared to the previous year, but shows an improvement by 14 million euros without the effect of Easter. The number of guests in markets and airline decreased by 5 percent to 2.6 million. The average flight utilization was 90 percent, which corresponds to a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous year.

outlook and challenges

For the entire 2025 financial year, TUI predicts a sales increase of 5 to 10 percent and an improvement in adjusted EBIT by 7 to 10 percent. At the same time, booking development for the winter 2024/25 rose by 2 percent, while prices increased by 4 percent. However, there was a decline in the bookings by 1 percent for the summer of 2025, but average prices rose by 4 percent. The TUI pursues a clear strategy to increase profitable growth and to improve the balance sheet structure.

Analysts have different expectations regarding the exempt cash flow, with some of which have a free cash flow of over 450 million euros for the full year. The course-to-cash flow ratio is almost nine, while net debt remained less than three billion euros, but this is still considered stressful for the balance sheet. In the short term, the share price depends on the booking behavior by the end of June. In the case of inadequate bookings, capacity cuts could occur, which could continue to cloud the company's image.