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TUI: Summer bookings are weak - investors look at the numbers with skepticism
On May 15, 2025, TUI reported on increases in sales in the cruise segment, but also on challenges with bookings and prices.
TUI: Summer bookings are weak - investors look at the numbers with skepticism
On May 14, 2025, TUI AG published its figures for the second quarter of the financial year and showed positive developments, which were, however, received with mixed feelings by analysts. The usual seasonal loss shrank to 188 million euros, which was 20 million euros better than the consensus expected. Sales rose 11 percent to 7.3 billion euros, supported by higher prices in the cruise and hotel divisions. CEO Sebastian Ebel emphasized that TUI is “clearly on track” to increase earnings for the year as a whole. This reported finanztrends.de.
Nevertheless, TUI shares fell into the red in the afternoon as analysts focused on the pace of bookings for the summer. By the end of April, only 60 percent of the capacity for July and August had been sold - three points less than in the previous year. Management attributes the late bookings to the late Easter date as well as uncertainties surrounding flight taxes and potential strikes. There is increasing price sensitivity among customers: families are waiting for last-minute offers, while wealthier customers book individual tours.
Financial key figures in detail
TUI also registered an improved adjusted EBIT of -206.8 million euros in the second quarter of 2025, which represents a decrease compared to the previous year, but excluding the effect of Easter shows an improvement of 14 million euros. The number of guests in the markets and airline areas fell by 5 percent to 2.6 million. The average flight utilization was 90 percent, which corresponds to a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous year.
| segment | Sales (in millions of €) | Adjusted EBIT (in € million) |
|---|---|---|
| Hotels & Resorts | 430.2 (+3.2%) | 102.6 |
| Cruises | 213.2 (-1.7%) | 81.8 (+11.7) |
| TUI Musement | 168.1 (+12.4%) | -12.1 (+4.4) |
| Markets + Airline | 3,065.3 (+1.0%) | -364.9 (-38.8) |
Outlook and challenges
For the entire 2025 financial year, TUI forecasts an increase in sales of 5 to 10 percent and an improvement in adjusted EBIT of 7 to 10 percent. At the same time, booking development for winter 2024/25 increased by 2 percent, while prices increased by 4 percent. However, for summer 2025 there was a 1 percent decrease in bookings, but average prices increased by 4 percent. TUI is pursuing a clear strategy to increase profitable growth and improve the balance sheet structure.
Analysts have different expectations for free cash flow, with some assuming free cash flow of over €450 million for the full year. The price-to-cash flow ratio is just under nine, while net debt remained below three billion euros, which is still seen as a burden on the balance sheet. In the short term, the share price depends on booking behavior until the end of June. If there are insufficient bookings, capacity cuts could occur, which could further tarnish the company's image.